Modeling of electricity consumption in the Asian gaming and tourism center-Macao SAR, People's Republic of China

T. M. Lai, W. M. To, Wai Chau Edward Lo, Yat Sze Choy

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

44 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The use of electricity is indispensable to modern life. As Macao Special Administrative Region becomes a gaming and tourism center in Asia, modeling the consumption of electricity is critical to Macao's economic development. The purposes of this paper are to conduct an extensive literature review on modeling of electricity consumption, and to identify key climatic, demographic, economic and/or industrial factors that may affect the electricity consumption of a country/city. It was identified that the five factors, namely temperature, population, the number of tourists, hotel room occupancy and days per month, could be used to characterize Macao's monthly electricity consumption. Three selected approaches including multiple regression, artificial neural network (ANN) and wavelet ANN were used to derive mathematical models of the electricity consumption. The accuracy of these models was assessed by using the mean squared error (MSE), the mean squared percentage error (MSPE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The error analysis shows that wavelet ANN has a very promising forecasting capability and can reveal the periodicity of electricity consumption.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)679-688
Number of pages10
JournalEnergy
Volume33
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2008

Keywords

  • Artificial neural network
  • Electricity consumption
  • Multiple regression
  • Wavelet ANN

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Pollution
  • Energy(all)

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