Metaphor Development in Public Discourse Using an ARIMA Time Series Analysis Approach

This study introduces a Time Series Analysis approach to metaphor development in a corpus of public discourse as a case study to examine the potential implications for the strategic use of metaphors in discourse over time. The corpus covers 20 years of public speeches by the government leaders in Hong Kong. We conducted an ARIMA time series modeling on the use of the frequently occurring metaphor source domains in the corpus. The ARIMA time series modeling procedures were explicitly presented, and the results were qualitatively discussed with empirical examples. We found that LIVING ORGANISM metaphors demonstrate the clearest usage profile across time, which can be attributable to the progressions of background events in the broad context based on the corpus evidence. In sum, our study emphasizes the Time Series Analysis as a complementary method offering structural insights to the diachronic study of metaphors in discourse.