Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control

Daihai He; Shi Zhao; Xiaoke Xu; Qiangying Lin; Zian Zhuang; Peihua Cao; Maggie H. Wang; Yijun Lou; Li Xiao; Ye Wu; Lin Yang

doi:10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2

Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control

Daihai He, Shi Zhao, Xiaoke Xu, Qiangying Lin, Zian Zhuang, Peihua Cao, Maggie H. Wang, Yijun Lou, Li Xiao, Ye Wu, Lin Yang

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.

Original language	English
Article number	1558
Pages (from-to)	1-4
Number of pages	4
Journal	BMC Public Health
Volume	20
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2020

Keywords

Basic reproductive number
COVID-19
Dispersion
Mitigation
Negative binomial

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

More information

10.1186/s12889-020-09624-2

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/88992

Cite this

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title = "Low dispersion in the infectiousness of COVID-19 cases implies difficulty in control",

abstract = "The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.",

keywords = "Basic reproductive number, COVID-19, Dispersion, Mitigation, Negative binomial",

author = "Daihai He and Shi Zhao and Xiaoke Xu and Qiangying Lin and Zian Zhuang and Peihua Cao and Wang, {Maggie H.} and Yijun Lou and Li Xiao and Ye Wu and Lin Yang",

note = "Funding Information: DH was supported by Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. Collaborative Research project. XX was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61773091). The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Acknowledgements Funding Information: DH was supported by Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. Collaborative Research project. Other authors declared no conflict of interest. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

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AU - He, Daihai

AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Xu, Xiaoke

AU - Lin, Qiangying

AU - Zhuang, Zian

AU - Cao, Peihua

AU - Wang, Maggie H.

AU - Lou, Yijun

AU - Xiao, Li

AU - Wu, Ye

AU - Yang, Lin

N1 - Funding Information: DH was supported by Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. Collaborative Research project. XX was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (61773091). The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. Acknowledgements Funding Information: DH was supported by Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd. Collaborative Research project. Other authors declared no conflict of interest. Publisher Copyright: © 2020, The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2020/12/1

Y1 - 2020/12/1

N2 - The individual infectiousness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), quantified by the number of secondary cases of a typical index case, is conventionally modelled by a negative-binomial (NB) distribution. Based on patient data of 9120 confirmed cases in China, we calculated the variation of the individual infectiousness, i.e., the dispersion parameter k of the NB distribution, at 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.98). This suggests that the dispersion in the individual infectiousness is probably low, thus COVID-19 infection is relatively easy to sustain in the population and more challenging to control. Instead of focusing on the much fewer super spreading events, we also need to focus on almost every case to effectively reduce transmission.

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