Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Mante S. Nieuwland; Stephen Politzer-Ahles; Evelien Heyselaar; Katrien Segaert; Emily Darley; Nina Kazanina; Sarah Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn; Federica Bartolozzi; Vita Kogan; Aine Ito; Diane Mézière; Dale J. Barr; Guillaume A. Rousselet; Heather J. Ferguson; Simon Busch-Moreno; Xiao Fu; Jyrki Tuomainen; Eugenia Kulakova; E. Matthew Husband; David I. Donaldson; Zdenko Kohút; Shirley Ann Rueschemeyer; Falk Huettig

doi:10.7554/eLife.33468

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Mante S. Nieuwland, Stephen Politzer-Ahles, Evelien Heyselaar, Katrien Segaert, Emily Darley, Nina Kazanina, Sarah Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Federica Bartolozzi, Vita Kogan, Aine Ito, Diane Mézière, Dale J. Barr, Guillaume A. Rousselet, Heather J. Ferguson, Simon Busch-Moreno, Xiao Fu, Jyrki Tuomainen, Eugenia Kulakova, E. Matthew Husband, David I. DonaldsonZdenko Kohút, Shirley Ann Rueschemeyer, Falk Huettig

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

136 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

Original language	English
Article number	e33468
Journal	eLife
Volume	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468
Publication status	Published - 3 Apr 2018

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Neuroscience(all)
Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology(all)
Immunology and Microbiology(all)

More information

10.7554/eLife.33468

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/92180

Cite this

Nieuwland, M. S., Politzer-Ahles, S., Heyselaar, E., Segaert, K., Darley, E., Kazanina, N., Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S., Bartolozzi, F., Kogan, V., Ito, A., Mézière, D., Barr, D. J., Rousselet, G. A., Ferguson, H. J., Busch-Moreno, S., Fu, X., Tuomainen, J., Kulakova, E., Husband, E. M., ... Huettig, F. (2018). Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension. eLife, 7, [e33468]. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

@article{175cf3597e40469f933d02fb4a07e463,

title = "Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension",

abstract = "Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment ({\textquoteleft}cloze{\textquoteright}). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.",

author = "Nieuwland, {Mante S.} and Stephen Politzer-Ahles and Evelien Heyselaar and Katrien Segaert and Emily Darley and Nina Kazanina and {Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn}, Sarah and Federica Bartolozzi and Vita Kogan and Aine Ito and Diane M{\'e}zi{\`e}re and Barr, {Dale J.} and Rousselet, {Guillaume A.} and Ferguson, {Heather J.} and Simon Busch-Moreno and Xiao Fu and Jyrki Tuomainen and Eugenia Kulakova and Husband, {E. Matthew} and Donaldson, {David I.} and Zdenko Koh{\'u}t and Rueschemeyer, {Shirley Ann} and Falk Huettig",

year = "2018",

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doi = "10.7554/eLife.33468",

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Nieuwland, MS, Politzer-Ahles, S, Heyselaar, E, Segaert, K, Darley, E, Kazanina, N, Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, S, Bartolozzi, F, Kogan, V, Ito, A, Mézière, D, Barr, DJ, Rousselet, GA, Ferguson, HJ, Busch-Moreno, S, Fu, X, Tuomainen, J, Kulakova, E, Husband, EM, Donaldson, DI, Kohút, Z, Rueschemeyer, SA & Huettig, F 2018, 'Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension', eLife, vol. 7, e33468. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.33468

TY - JOUR

T1 - Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

AU - Nieuwland, Mante S.

AU - Politzer-Ahles, Stephen

AU - Heyselaar, Evelien

AU - Segaert, Katrien

AU - Darley, Emily

AU - Kazanina, Nina

AU - Von Grebmer Zu Wolfsthurn, Sarah

AU - Bartolozzi, Federica

AU - Kogan, Vita

AU - Ito, Aine

AU - Mézière, Diane

AU - Barr, Dale J.

AU - Rousselet, Guillaume A.

AU - Ferguson, Heather J.

AU - Busch-Moreno, Simon

AU - Fu, Xiao

AU - Tuomainen, Jyrki

AU - Kulakova, Eugenia

AU - Husband, E. Matthew

AU - Donaldson, David I.

AU - Kohút, Zdenko

AU - Rueschemeyer, Shirley Ann

AU - Huettig, Falk

PY - 2018/4/3

Y1 - 2018/4/3

N2 - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

AB - Do people routinely pre-activate the meaning and even the phonological form of upcoming words? The most acclaimed evidence for phonological prediction comes from a 2005 Nature Neuroscience publication by DeLong, Urbach and Kutas, who observed a graded modulation of electrical brain potentials (N400) to nouns and preceding articles by the probability that people use a word to continue the sentence fragment (‘cloze’). In our direct replication study spanning 9 laboratories (N=334), pre-registered replication-analyses and exploratory Bayes factor analyses successfully replicated the noun-results but, crucially, not the article-results. Pre-registered single-trial analyses also yielded a statistically significant effect for the nouns but not the articles. Exploratory Bayesian single-trial analyses showed that the article-effect may be non-zero but is likely far smaller than originally reported and too small to observe without very large sample sizes. Our results do not support the view that readers routinely pre-activate the phonological form of predictable words.

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U2 - 10.7554/eLife.33468

DO - 10.7554/eLife.33468

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 29631695

AN - SCOPUS:85049020933

SN - 2050-084X

VL - 7

JO - eLife

JF - eLife

M1 - e33468

ER -

Large-scale replication study reveals a limit on probabilistic prediction in language comprehension

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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