Investigation and evaluation of strategic residential heat and transport electrification for supporting deep grid decarbonization

The rapid decline in the levelized cost of renewable energy and the scale-up application of distributed heat pumps (HPs) and electrical vehicles (EVs) provide efficient conditions for the electrification of residential buildings. However, the rising penetration of distributed energy resources (DER) significantly change the dynamics of the power grid balancing. Enhancing system flexibility and enabling multi-energy coupling are necessary to facilitate the realization of a sustainable decarbonization pathway. This work proposes a grid-interactive schedule model of the residential energy system. Aggregated historical data of residential buildings in Kyushu are used to validate the proposed demand management strategies and assess the benefits of coordinating HP and EV operations under diverse scenarios. The results demonstrate that the rising EV and HP penetration create higher demands on the grid, especially in winter, characterized by more peak demand and higher slopes. Moreover, the peak demand difference among these scenarios reaches a factor of two. PV integration mitigates the increase in peak electricity demand and increases the self-sufficiency ratio by 32 %. Furthermore, some scenarios can achieve fully on-site PV generation consumption. Transport electrification shows a greater impact compared to hot water electrification. Overall, all the scenarios demonstrate the operation cost savings with increased DER penetration.