International trade reduces emissions through technology transfer led by key emitters

The Paris Agreement highlights technology transfer for climate mitigation, yet the disparities in technology ownership and diffusion slow global decarbonization. While trade agreements serve as institutional pathways for technological diffusion, the decarbonization potential of patent transfers remains unassessed. Here using data on carbon emissions, trade and patents from 1995 to 2023, we evaluate how membership in trade agreements influences global carbon emission through technological accumulation. Our analyses show that while trade agreements have heterogeneous effects on emissions, they lead to a robust 2.8% reduction among key emitters. These reductions are mediated more by cross-border general technology transfers than by specific climate innovation. Scenario analyses further suggest that full technology transferring from key emitters to all their partners could reduce emissions by 587 Mt, equivalent to 1.6% of global emissions in 2021. These results demonstrate that incorporating technology transfer mechanisms into trade agreements is critical for maximizing their decarbonization potential.