International tourism forecasts: Time-series analysis of world and regional data

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on international tourism arrivals and receipts at nominal, real and per capita levels. It uses modern time-series techniques based on the period 1960-2000 to produce forecasts for 2001-2010 in the six major World Tourism Organization regions and the world. The initial diagrammatic analysis of existing data suggests that, despite conventional wisdom, evolution in the mass tourism era has not been rosy. Performance differs dramatically among the regions, fluctuations are sharp and negative tourism growth is not unusual in real and per capita terms. Similarly, the subsequent forecasts occasionally have negative signs. Policy makers should, therefore, take action to increase revenue generation but not at the expense of sustainable tourism development.