International tourism forecasts: Time-series analysis of world and regional data

Andreas Papatheodorou, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Forecasting is an essential analytical tool in tourism policy and planning. This paper focuses on international tourism arrivals and receipts at nominal, real and per capita levels. It uses modern time-series techniques based on the period 1960-2000 to produce forecasts for 2001-2010 in the six major World Tourism Organization regions and the world. The initial diagrammatic analysis of existing data suggests that, despite conventional wisdom, evolution in the mass tourism era has not been rosy. Performance differs dramatically among the regions, fluctuations are sharp and negative tourism growth is not unusual in real and per capita terms. Similarly, the subsequent forecasts occasionally have negative signs. Policy makers should, therefore, take action to increase revenue generation but not at the expense of sustainable tourism development.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)11-23
Number of pages13
JournalTourism Economics
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2005

Keywords

  • Diagrammatic analysis
  • Forecasting
  • Policy making
  • Time-series analysis
  • Tourism econometrics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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