Impact of air connectivity on bilateral service export and import trade: The case of China

This paper examines the effect of bilateral air connectivity on bilateral service trade flows. Our service trade data includes ‘commercial’, ‘transport’, ‘travel’, and ‘government’ services. We developed a reduced-form gravity-type model using the Chinese data. An instrument variable (IV) approach is adopted to address the endogeneity issue between bilateral air connectivity and the service trade variables. Our key results are: (a) increasing the number of direct routes can significantly promote bilateral service export and import trades; (b) the average route-level traffic density has only marginal positive effects; (c) improving air connectivity would enlarge China's overall service trade deficit, because the transport and travel services imports are promoted more than their exports; (d) The ‘commercial’ service exports can be stimulated more than the imports, making China achieve larger commercial service trade surplus by improving bilateral air connectivity.