How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis

Lefei Han; Shi Zhao; Peihua Cao; Marc K.C. Chong; Jingxuan Wang; Daihai He; Xiaobei Deng; Jinjun Ran

doi:10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491

How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis

Lefei Han
, Shi Zhao
, Peihua Cao
, Marc K.C. Chong
, Jingxuan Wang
, Daihai He
, Xiaobei Deng
, Jinjun Ran

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

Abstract

Background: Several recent studies reported a positive (statistical) association between ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and COVID-19 transmissibility. However, considering the intensive transportation restriction due to lockdown measures that would lead to declines in both ambient NO₂ concentration and COVID-19 spread, the crude or insufficiently adjusted associations between NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility might be confounded. This study aimed to investigate whether transportation restriction confounded, mediated, or modified the association between ambient NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility. Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (R_t) was calculated to quantify the instantaneous COVID-19 transmissibility in 31 Chinese cities from January 1, 2020, to February 29, 2020. For each city, we evaluated the relationships between ambient NO₂, transportation restriction, and COVID-19 transmission under three scenarios, including simple linear regression, mediation analysis, and adjusting transportation restriction as a confounder. The statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) of the three scenarios in 31 cities was summarized. Results: We repeated the crude correlational analysis, and also found the significantly positive association between NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility. We found that little evidence supported NO₂ as a mediator between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility. The association between NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility appears less likely after adjusting the effects of transportation restriction. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the crude association between NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility is likely confounded by the transportation restriction in the early COVID-19 outbreak. After adjusting the confounders, the association between NO₂ and COVID-19 transmissibility appears unlikely. Further studies are warranted to validate the findings in other regions.

Original language	English
Article number	697491
Pages (from-to)	1-6
Number of pages	6
Journal	Frontiers in Public Health
Volume	9
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491
Publication status	Published - 29 Jul 2021

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 11 Sustainable Cities and Communities

Keywords

China
COVID-19
nitrogen dioxide
reproduction number
transportation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

More information

10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491

Cite this

@article{c4a24ca67a7f4b0c8f756fec70500f1a,

title = "How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis",

abstract = "Background: Several recent studies reported a positive (statistical) association between ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and COVID-19 transmissibility. However, considering the intensive transportation restriction due to lockdown measures that would lead to declines in both ambient NO2 concentration and COVID-19 spread, the crude or insufficiently adjusted associations between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility might be confounded. This study aimed to investigate whether transportation restriction confounded, mediated, or modified the association between ambient NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) was calculated to quantify the instantaneous COVID-19 transmissibility in 31 Chinese cities from January 1, 2020, to February 29, 2020. For each city, we evaluated the relationships between ambient NO2, transportation restriction, and COVID-19 transmission under three scenarios, including simple linear regression, mediation analysis, and adjusting transportation restriction as a confounder. The statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) of the three scenarios in 31 cities was summarized. Results: We repeated the crude correlational analysis, and also found the significantly positive association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. We found that little evidence supported NO2 as a mediator between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility. The association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears less likely after adjusting the effects of transportation restriction. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the crude association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility is likely confounded by the transportation restriction in the early COVID-19 outbreak. After adjusting the confounders, the association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears unlikely. Further studies are warranted to validate the findings in other regions.",

keywords = "China, COVID-19, nitrogen dioxide, reproduction number, transportation",

author = "Lefei Han and Shi Zhao and Peihua Cao and Chong, \{Marc K.C.\} and Jingxuan Wang and Daihai He and Xiaobei Deng and Jinjun Ran",

note = "Funding Information: This work was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 21777099, XD). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Copyright {\textcopyright} 2021 Han, Zhao, Cao, Chong, Wang, He, Deng and Ran.",

year = "2021",

month = jul,

day = "29",

doi = "10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

pages = "1--6",

journal = "Frontiers in Public Health",

issn = "2296-2565",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility

T2 - An Exploratory Analysis

AU - Han, Lefei

AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Cao, Peihua

AU - Chong, Marc K.C.

AU - Wang, Jingxuan

AU - He, Daihai

AU - Deng, Xiaobei

AU - Ran, Jinjun

N1 - Funding Information: This work was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 21777099, XD). Publisher Copyright: © Copyright © 2021 Han, Zhao, Cao, Chong, Wang, He, Deng and Ran.

PY - 2021/7/29

Y1 - 2021/7/29

N2 - Background: Several recent studies reported a positive (statistical) association between ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and COVID-19 transmissibility. However, considering the intensive transportation restriction due to lockdown measures that would lead to declines in both ambient NO2 concentration and COVID-19 spread, the crude or insufficiently adjusted associations between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility might be confounded. This study aimed to investigate whether transportation restriction confounded, mediated, or modified the association between ambient NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) was calculated to quantify the instantaneous COVID-19 transmissibility in 31 Chinese cities from January 1, 2020, to February 29, 2020. For each city, we evaluated the relationships between ambient NO2, transportation restriction, and COVID-19 transmission under three scenarios, including simple linear regression, mediation analysis, and adjusting transportation restriction as a confounder. The statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) of the three scenarios in 31 cities was summarized. Results: We repeated the crude correlational analysis, and also found the significantly positive association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. We found that little evidence supported NO2 as a mediator between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility. The association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears less likely after adjusting the effects of transportation restriction. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the crude association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility is likely confounded by the transportation restriction in the early COVID-19 outbreak. After adjusting the confounders, the association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears unlikely. Further studies are warranted to validate the findings in other regions.

AB - Background: Several recent studies reported a positive (statistical) association between ambient nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and COVID-19 transmissibility. However, considering the intensive transportation restriction due to lockdown measures that would lead to declines in both ambient NO2 concentration and COVID-19 spread, the crude or insufficiently adjusted associations between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility might be confounded. This study aimed to investigate whether transportation restriction confounded, mediated, or modified the association between ambient NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. Methods: The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) was calculated to quantify the instantaneous COVID-19 transmissibility in 31 Chinese cities from January 1, 2020, to February 29, 2020. For each city, we evaluated the relationships between ambient NO2, transportation restriction, and COVID-19 transmission under three scenarios, including simple linear regression, mediation analysis, and adjusting transportation restriction as a confounder. The statistical significance (p-value < 0.05) of the three scenarios in 31 cities was summarized. Results: We repeated the crude correlational analysis, and also found the significantly positive association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility. We found that little evidence supported NO2 as a mediator between transportation restriction and COVID-19 transmissibility. The association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears less likely after adjusting the effects of transportation restriction. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that the crude association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility is likely confounded by the transportation restriction in the early COVID-19 outbreak. After adjusting the confounders, the association between NO2 and COVID-19 transmissibility appears unlikely. Further studies are warranted to validate the findings in other regions.

KW - China

KW - COVID-19

KW - nitrogen dioxide

KW - reproduction number

KW - transportation

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85112437146

U2 - 10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491

DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2021.697491

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85112437146

SN - 2296-2565

VL - 9

SP - 1

EP - 6

JO - Frontiers in Public Health

JF - Frontiers in Public Health

M1 - 697491

ER -

How Transportation Restriction Shapes the Relationship Between Ambient Nitrogen Dioxide and COVID-19 Transmissibility: An Exploratory Analysis

Abstract

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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