Group-level human values estimated with web search data and archival data explain the geographic variation in COVID-19 severity in the United States

Objectives: Personal Focus values (PF = Openness to change values + Self-enhancement values) motivate self-centred behaviours, and Social Focus values (SF = Conservation values + Self-transcendence values) promote self-sacrificial counterparts. This research investigated how a state-level PF-SF value-continuum would explain the geographic variation in COVID-19 severity in the United States. Design: This research estimated state-level values by Google search data (from 2004 to 2019) on value-related words (e.g. family for conservation values) (Study 1a) and archival indicators (e.g. gun ownership rate for security values) (Study 1b). COVID-19 severity was measured by shorter time delay of first documented cases, shorter overall doubling times, higher reproductive ratio and higher case fatality ratio. Hierarchical and multilevel analyses examined how state-level values would predict COVID-19 severity across U.S. states (Studies 1a and 1b) and 3,135 counties (Study 2). Results: State-level analyses accounting for spatial autocorrelation and covariates (e.g. COVID-19 testing rate, airport traffic, personality, etc.) revealed that the PF-SF value-continuums measured with different methods positively and significantly predicted COVID-19 severity, and the effects of state-level values on county-level COVID-19 severity were significant when county- and state-level covariates were controlled. Conclusion: Social focus values may mitigate the devastating effect of COVID-19 in the United States.