From isolation to linkage: Holistic insights into ecological risk induced by land use change

While landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) has the potential to positively impact environmental concerns by informing land use policies, a holistic perspective has yet to be adopted in previous investigations of LERA in relation to land use change. To address this gap, our study introduces a novel research framework that applies landscape ecology principles and methodologies, utilizing the concept of ‘landscape’ as a bridge connecting ecological risk and land use change. Building on relevant literature, we propose three hypotheses regarding the systemic nature of ecological risks. We then elucidate the principles, logic, and methods of LERA and employ high-precision land-use data and landscape pattern metrics to evaluate ecological risks resulting from land-use changes in Xiapu County between 2009 and 2013. Our ecological risk and land use overlay analysis validates three assumptions regarding the systematic character of ecological risks: (1) ecological risks in a local area are influenced by more than just land use changes within its spatial boundaries, (2) similar land use shifts can have varying impacts on ecological risk over time, and (3) ecological risk change cannot be solely attributed to the change in land use type. Finally, based on our enhanced understanding of ecological risks, we propose policy recommendations for land use planning and development at both global and local spatial scales. Our study provides a comprehensive understanding of ecological risks and their relationships with land use change, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.