Forecasting Tourism Demand with an Improved Mixed Data Sampling Model

Long Wen, Chang Liu, Haiyan Song, Han Liu

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Search query data reflect users’ intentions, preferences and interests. The interest in using such data to forecast tourism demand has increased in recent years. The mixed data sampling (MIDAS) method is often used in such forecasting, but is not effective when moving average (MA) dynamics are involved. To investigate the relevance of the MA components in MIDAS models to tourism demand forecasting, an improved MIDAS model that integrates MIDAS and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average process is proposed. Its performance is tested by forecasting monthly tourist arrivals in Hong Kong from mainland China with daily composite indices constructed from a large number of search queries using the generalized dynamic factor model. The forecasting results suggest that this new model significantly outperforms the benchmark model. In addition, comparing the forecasts and nowcasts shows that the latter generally outperforms the former.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)336-353
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Volume60
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021

Keywords

  • generalized dynamic factor model
  • MIDAS
  • nowcasts
  • search query data
  • tourism demand forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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