Forecasting the demand for Hong Kong tourism : the views of experts

This paper presents the forecasts of visitor arrivals and the demand for hotel rooms in Hong Kong up to 2012 by considering the influence of the current economic/financial crisis and swine influenza using the Delphi approach. The results show that Mainland China is anticipated to continue as a significant source of inbound tourism for Hong Kong. The experts predict a 4.95% increase in tourists from mainland China even in 2009. From 2010 onwards, the numbers are expected to grow by around 8% per annum, reaching 22.3 million in 2012. These forecasts show that the market share held by mainland China will continue to grow, and it is expected to account for more than 60% after 2010. The experts foresee negative growth (-5.08%) for the average hotel room occupancy rate in 2009, but they expect a rebound thereafter. The rate is predicted to range from 81.6% - 87% through the 2010-2012 period. Most of the panelists gave more pessimistic estimates of the occupancy rates for High Tariff A and B and Medium Tariff hotel rooms than for Tourist Guesthouse rooms. The experts concurred that Medium Tariff rooms will probably suffer most because of a loss of mainland guests, whereas the other three categories (High Tariff A and B hotel rooms and Tourist Guesthouses) will either see little change or a minor increase in 2009. The implications of the anticipated scenarios for the Hong Kong tourism planning are also discussed in this paper.