Forecasting construction manpower demand: An econometric model

Manpower forecast has become an important management tool for decision makers and policy makers to match and structure the skills of the workforce. National planners are also increasingly aware that the competitiveness and growth of the nation, as well as its social welfare, depend in no small degree on the full exploitation of the skills of its people. However, there is very limited research in establishing a comprehensive manpower demand forecasting model in construction. This paper aims to present the framework of an advanced econometric model for estimating the manpower demand in construction. Vector error correction modeling, regression analysis and exponential smoothing technique were applied to develop the relationships between manpower demand and the relevant variables in the construction industry. The forecasting models developed can benefit the construction industry by providing critical information on the future construction manpower requirements and assist policy makers and training planners to formulate training strategies. Apart from this practical use, the research also contributes new knowledgeand a solid framework to the area of manpower forecasting and planning.