Forecasting cargo growth and regional role of the port of Hong Kong

The port of Hong Kong is a critical component of both the city's and the region's economy. However, forecasts of cargo growth and development of the port of Hong Kong have been scarce and the findings conflict, while systematic treatments on the subject are rare. This paper predicts cargo growth and the development of the port of Hong Kong by means of regression analysis. Factors affecting cargo throughput in Hong Kong are identified, qualitatively evaluated and then entered into a forecast model that generates a projection of cargo throughput. Based on the cargo throughput forecast, and an assessment of the Pearl River Delta (the hinterland of the port), the future role of the port is postulated. Further, the current cargo forecast is compared to the official forecast by the Port and Maritime Board, on which policy decisions are based.