Exploring the role of technology innovations in the diffusion of electric vehicle with an agent-based spatial integrated model

Technology innovations are expected to overcome several barriers to the uptake of Electric Vehicles (EVs). This paper explored the role of battery and charging technologies in the diffusion of EVs. Specifically, four groups of “what-if” scenario in Beijing were set up to assess the potential impacts of battery cost (i.e., EV price), battery capacity (i.e., driving range), battery swap stations and fast charging posts on the expansion of EV market. An agent-based spatial integrated model (SelfSim-EV) was used to simulate how vehicle consumers might respond to these technological innovations over time. The results suggested that 1) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) became competitive when its sale price decreased over time at a yearly rate of 8%, due to the decrease in battery cost; 2) Increasing the driving range of Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) had little influence on the total number of vehicle purchasers, but did increase electricity consumption; 3) Deploying fast charging infrastructures, i.e., battery swap stations and fast charging posts, had little influence on the uptake of EVs at the macro level, suggesting that fast charging facilities might not be necessary at the early stage of EV development.