Ex Ante Tourism Forecasting Assessment

Anyu Liu, Vera Shanshan Lin, Gang Li, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)


Although numerous studies have focused on forecasting international tourism demand, minimal light has been shed on the factors influencing the accuracy of real-world ex ante forecasting. This study evaluates the forecasting errors across various prediction horizons by analyzing the annually published forecasts of the Pacific Asia Tourism Association (PATA) from 2013 to 2017, comprising 765 origin–destination pairs covering 31 destinations in the region. The regression analysis shows that the variation in tourism demand and gross domestic product (GDP), covariation between tourism demand and GDP, order of lagged variables, origin, destination, and forecasting method all have significant effects on the forecasting accuracy over different horizons. This suggests that tourism forecasting should account for these factors in the future.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Publication statusPublished - 26 Nov 2020


  • data characteristics
  • ex ante forecasts
  • forecasting errors
  • forecasting horizons
  • international tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management


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