Evaluation of Two-Ship Collision Severity using Ordered Probit Approaches

Jinxian Weng, Guorong Li, Tian Chai, Dong Yang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study develops an ordered probit model to evaluate the factors influencing two-ship collision severity using ten years' ship collision accident data from Fujian sea areas. The model results show that the involvement of big ships has the largest impact in increasing the probability of a serious or very serious accident, followed by the involvement of fishing vessels. There will be a bigger probability of a serious accident if both ships involved in the collision are cargo ships. We found that the season of spring, poor visibility and night time periods are more likely to be factors in high severity levels of ship collision. The results also reveal that lookout failure plays a decisive role in increasing serious accident risk compared with other types of human errors. The results of this study may be beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to reduce the likelihood of serious ship collisions.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)822-836
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of Navigation
Volume71
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2018

Keywords

  • Modelling
  • Risk
  • Ship Collision

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oceanography
  • Ocean Engineering

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