Evaluating the Spike in the Symptomatic Proportion of SARS-Cov-2 in China in 2022 with Variolation Effects: A Modeling Analysis

Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Ismail Abdulrashid, Sania Qureshi, Andrés Colubri, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Despite most COVID-19 infections being asymptomatic, mainland China had a high increase in symptomatic cases at the end of 2022. In this study, we examine China's sudden COVID-19 symptomatic surge using a conceptual SIR-based model. Our model considers the epidemiological characteristics of SARS-CoV-2, particularly variolation, from non-pharmaceutical intervention (facial masking and social distance), demography, and disease mortality in mainland China. The increase in symptomatic proportions in China may be attributable to (1) higher sensitivity and vulnerability during winter and (2) enhanced viral inhalation due to spikes in SARS-CoV-2 infections (high transmissibility). These two reasons could explain China's high symptomatic proportion of COVID-19 in December 2022. Our study, therefore, can serve as a decision-support tool to enhance SARS-CoV-2 prevention and control efforts. Thus, we highlight that facemask-induced variolation could potentially reduces transmissibility rather than severity in infected individuals. However, further investigation is required to understand the variolation effect on disease severity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)601-617
Number of pages17
JournalInfectious Disease Modelling
Volume9
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2024

Keywords

  • Epidemic
  • Epidemiological modeling
  • Reproduction number
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Variolation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health Policy
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Applied Mathematics

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