Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Salihu S. Musa; Shi Zhao; Nafiu Hussaini; Zian Zhuang; Yushan Wu; Abdurrahman Abdulhamid; Maggie H. Wang; Daihai He

doi:10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003

Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Salihu S. Musa
, Shi Zhao
, Nafiu Hussaini
, Zian Zhuang
, Yushan Wu
, Abdurrahman Abdulhamid
, Maggie H. Wang
, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R₀) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R₀ is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4547-4554
Number of pages	8
Journal	Alexandria Engineering Journal
Volume	60
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003
Publication status	Published - Oct 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Epidemic
Reproduction number
SARS-CoV-2
Statistical modelling
Under-ascertainment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Engineering

More information

10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/90756

Cite this

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title = "Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics",

abstract = "This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95\%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Epidemic, Reproduction number, SARS-CoV-2, Statistical modelling, Under-ascertainment",

author = "Musa, \{Salihu S.\} and Shi Zhao and Nafiu Hussaini and Zian Zhuang and Yushan Wu and Abdurrahman Abdulhamid and Wang, \{Maggie H.\} and Daihai He",

note = "Funding Information: DH was supported by an Alibaba (China) Co. Ltd Collaborative Research grant (ZG9Z). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 THE AUTHORS",

year = "2021",

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AU - Zhao, Shi

AU - Hussaini, Nafiu

AU - Zhuang, Zian

AU - Wu, Yushan

AU - Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman

AU - Wang, Maggie H.

AU - He, Daihai

PY - 2021/10

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N2 - This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

AB - This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

KW - COVID-19

KW - Epidemic

KW - Reproduction number

KW - SARS-CoV-2

KW - Statistical modelling

KW - Under-ascertainment

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DO - 10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003

M3 - Journal article

AN - SCOPUS:85104293916

SN - 1110-0168

VL - 60

SP - 4547

EP - 4554

JO - Alexandria Engineering Journal

JF - Alexandria Engineering Journal

IS - 5

ER -

Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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