Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Nafiu Hussaini, Zian Zhuang, Yushan Wu, Abdurrahman Abdulhamid, Maggie H. Wang, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)


This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4547-4554
Number of pages8
JournalAlexandria Engineering Journal
Issue number5
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021


  • COVID-19
  • Epidemic
  • Reproduction number
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Statistical modelling
  • Under-ascertainment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

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