Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Salihu S. Musa; Shi Zhao; Nafiu Hussaini; Zian Zhuang; Yushan Wu; Abdurrahman Abdulhamid; Maggie H. Wang; Daihai He

doi:10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003

Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Salihu S. Musa, Shi Zhao, Nafiu Hussaini, Zian Zhuang, Yushan Wu, Abdurrahman Abdulhamid, Maggie H. Wang, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publication › Journal article › Academic research › peer-review

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R₀) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R₀ is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	4547-4554
Number of pages	8
Journal	Alexandria Engineering Journal
Volume	60
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003
Publication status	Published - Oct 2021

Keywords

COVID-19
Epidemic
Reproduction number
SARS-CoV-2
Statistical modelling
Under-ascertainment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Engineering

More information

10.1016/j.aej.2021.03.003

http://hdl.handle.net/10397/90756

Cite this

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title = "Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics",

abstract = "This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.",

keywords = "COVID-19, Epidemic, Reproduction number, SARS-CoV-2, Statistical modelling, Under-ascertainment",

author = "Musa, {Salihu S.} and Shi Zhao and Nafiu Hussaini and Zian Zhuang and Yushan Wu and Abdurrahman Abdulhamid and Wang, {Maggie H.} and Daihai He",

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AU - Zhuang, Zian

AU - Wu, Yushan

AU - Abdulhamid, Abdurrahman

AU - Wang, Maggie H.

AU - He, Daihai

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AB - This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

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KW - Reproduction number

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Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Abstract

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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