TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating the Prevalence of Asymptomatic COVID-19 Cases and Their Contribution in Transmission - Using Henan Province, China, as an Example
AU - Li, Chunyu
AU - Zhu, Yuchen
AU - Qi, Chang
AU - Liu, Lili
AU - Zhang, Dandan
AU - Wang, Xu
AU - She, Kaili
AU - Jia, Yan
AU - Liu, Tingxuan
AU - He, Daihai
AU - Xiong, Momiao
AU - Li, Xiujun
N1 - Funding Information:
We appreciate the Health Commission of Henan Province and its subsidiaries for providing data for our research. Funding. This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 81673238), COVID-19 Emergency Research Project of Shandong University (Grant No. 2020XGC01), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFC1200500, 2019YFC1200502), and the General Research Fund (Grant No. 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China and Alibaba (China) Co., Ltd. Collaborative Research project (P0031768). Funders have no role in the design of the study and collection, analysis, interpretation of data, or in writing the manuscript.
Funding Information:
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 81673238), COVID-19 Emergency Research Project of Shandong University (Grant No. 2020XGC01), National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant Nos. 2019YFC1200500, 2019YFC1200502), and the General Research Fund (Grant No. 15205119) of the Research Grants Council (RGC) of Hong Kong, China and Alibaba (China) Co., Ltd. Collaborative Research project (P0031768). Funders have no role in the design of the study and collection, analysis, interpretation of data, or in writing the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© Copyright © 2021 Li, Zhu, Qi, Liu, Zhang, Wang, She, Jia, Liu, He, Xiong and Li.
PY - 2021/6/23
Y1 - 2021/6/23
N2 - Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example. Methods: We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, Rt. Results: The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R0 = 2.73, and Rt dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures. Conclusion: The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.
AB - Background: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2), is now sweeping across the world. A substantial proportion of infections only lead to mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, but the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic infections remains unknown. In this paper, we proposed a model to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, using COVID-19 in Henan Province, China, as an example. Methods: We extended the conventional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model by including asymptomatic, unconfirmed symptomatic, and quarantined cases. Based on this model, we used daily reported COVID-19 cases from January 21 to February 26, 2020, in Henan Province to estimate the proportion and infectivity of asymptomatic cases, as well as the change of effective reproductive number, Rt. Results: The proportion of asymptomatic cases among COVID-19 infected individuals was 42% and the infectivity was 10% that of symptomatic ones. The basic reproductive number R0 = 2.73, and Rt dropped below 1 on January 31 under a series of measures. Conclusion: The spread of the COVID-19 epidemic was rapid in the early stage, with a large number of asymptomatic infected individuals having relatively low infectivity. However, it was quickly brought under control with national measures.
KW - asymptomatic cases
KW - COVID-19
KW - infectious dynamic model
KW - prevention and control measures
KW - the effective reproductive number
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85109183664&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3389/fmed.2021.591372
DO - 10.3389/fmed.2021.591372
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85109183664
SN - 2296-858X
VL - 8
SP - 1
EP - 8
JO - Frontiers in Medicine
JF - Frontiers in Medicine
M1 - 591372
ER -