Duration analysis for recurrent ship accidents

Meifeng Luo, Sung Ho Shin, Young Tae Chang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

About 63% of the world’s shipping accidents are recurrent—they occur to ships that have already experienced at least one prior accident. Therefore, reducing recurrent accidents can contribute significantly to maritime safety. We study the factors affecting both first and recurrent accidents, by focusing on the duration between two accidents. Cox proportional hazard models are applied to ship accident data from 1996 to 2015, and the results identify which ships have a high risk of recurrent accidents, based on ship attributes, ship supply and market conditions, shipbuilding country, previous accident type, and ship type. The recurrent rate is high when the ship involved in the accident is old, small, flies a flag of convenience, and has no detention record. In addition, the accident risk increases when the shipping market faces a high bunker price, overcapacity in supply, a high time charter rate, or low newbuilding price. On the other hand, ships built in China and Japan have lower recurrent accident rates than those built elsewhere, although ships built in China have earlier first accidents than do others. General cargo ships have the highest recurrent accident rate, followed by dry bulkers, container ships, and tankers, in that order.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)603-622
Number of pages20
JournalMaritime Policy and Management
Volume44
Issue number5
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Jul 2017

Keywords

  • duration analysis
  • extended Cox proportional hazard models
  • maritime safety
  • Recurrent ship accidents
  • statistical analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Ocean Engineering
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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