Doubly uncertain transportation network: Degradable capacity and stochastic demand

Barbara W.Y. Siu, Hong K. Lo

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

153 Citations (Scopus)


This study developed a methodology to model doubly uncertain transportation network with stochastic link capacity degradation and stochastic demand. We consider that the total travel demand comprises of two parts, infrequent travelers and commuters. The traffic volume of infrequent travelers is stochastic, which adds to the network traffic in a random manner based on fixed route choice proportions. On the other hand, the traffic volume of commuters is stable or deterministic. Commuters acquire the network travel time variability from past experiences, factor them into their route choice considerations, and settle into a long-term habitual route choice equilibrium in which they have no incentive of switching away. To define this equilibrium, we introduce the notion of "travel time budget" to relate commuters' risk aversion on route choices in the presence of travel time variability. The travel time budget varies among commuters according to their degrees of risk aversion and requirements on punctual arrivals. We then developed a mixed-equilibrium formulation to capture these stochastic considerations and illustrated its properties through some numerical studies.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)166-181
Number of pages16
JournalEuropean Journal of Operational Research
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 16 Nov 2008
Externally publishedYes


  • Degradable network
  • Stochastic demand
  • Transportation network reliability
  • Uncertainty modeling

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Computer Science
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Information Systems and Management


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