Do Macroeconomic Variables Contain Any Useful Information for Predicting Changes in Hospitality Stock Indices?

Kevin K.F. Wong, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between macroeconomic and the hospitality stock variables using the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling approach. The empirical results based on the U.S. data show that the hospitality stock indices largely follow an autoregressive process, and they are not entirely independent from some key macroeconomic variables. Specifically, the BOND variable explains a substantial proportion of the forecast error variance among the stock indices for restaurants, lodging, and casinos. The consumer price index, money supply, and industrial production variables, however, provide a relatively smaller contribution toward explaining the forecast error variance in these hospitality stock indices.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)16-33
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Hospitality and Tourism Research
Volume30
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2006

Keywords

  • autoregressive
  • forecast error variance
  • impulse response
  • innovation
  • stock indices

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Education
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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