Disaggregated crash prediction models for different crash types using joint probability model

Xin Pei, Nang Ngai Sze, S. C. Wong, Ling Huang, Danya Yao

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingConference article published in proceeding or bookAcademic researchpeer-review

Abstract

Road safety affects health and development worldwide, thus it is essential to examine the factors that influence crashes and injuries. As the relationships between crashes, the severity of injuries, and possible risk factors could vary depending on the type of collision, we attempt to develop disaggregated prediction models for different crash types in terms of number of vehicles involved in the crash (i.e., single- and multi-vehicle crashes). As disaggregated speed data are available from the probe vehicles equipped with global positioning system (GPS) devices, it is possible to determine how average speed and its dispersion affect crashes and injries. We also examine risk factors, including geometric design, weather conditions, and temporal distribution. A comprehensive database is thus established with information on road crashes and other possible risk factors for selected road segments in Hong Kong. In particular, a joint probability model is applied to analyze crash occurrence and severity simultaneously under an integrated modeling framework. As a result, speed plays an important role in road safety performance. Furthermore, rainfall and several geometric factors are also significantly associated with crash occurrence or severity.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationICTIS 2013
Subtitle of host publicationImproving Multimodal Transportation Systems - Information, Safety, and Integration - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety
Pages1298-1305
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 15 Nov 2013
Externally publishedYes
Event2nd International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety: Improving Multimodal Transportation Systems - Information, Safety, and Integration, ICTIS 2013 - Wuhan, China
Duration: 29 Jun 20132 Jul 2013

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Transportation Information and Safety: Improving Multimodal Transportation Systems - Information, Safety, and Integration, ICTIS 2013
CountryChina
CityWuhan
Period29/06/132/07/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Information Systems
  • Transportation

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