Development of a simulation model (enres) for energy consumption in residential sector

A simple simulation model, ENRES, is reported in this paper for energy consumption outlook in residential sector. The total residential energy consumption for an economy is modelled as a function of households, income per household, energy price of a dominant energy source and a weather indicator - Heating Degree Days (HDD) or Cooling Degree Days (CDD).The model was developed based on the long time series Japanese data (1965–1994), step by step from one variable to the final four variables which can well explain the changes of energy consumption in the residential sector of Japan for thirty years, especially for the turbulent years of the 1970 s and 1980’s due to the oil supply crisis. If all the variables for the future years are predicted, the simulation model can be used to forecast the residential energy consumption for an economy. As an example, an attempt is made to forecast the residential energy consumption for the next ten years in Hong Kong.