Development of a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model for radiation-induced hypothyroidism in nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients

Ren Luo, Wing Cheung Vincent Wu, Binghui He, Xiaoying Gao, Zhenxi Xu, Dandan Wang, Zhining Yang, Mei Li, Zhixiong Lin

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)


Background: The objectives of this study were to build a normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of radiation-induced hypothyroidism (RHT) for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients and to compare it with other four published NTCP models to evaluate its efficacy. Methods: Medical notes of 174 NPC patients after radiotherapy were reviewed. Biochemical hypothyroidism was defined as an elevated level of serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) value with a normal or decreased level of serum free thyroxine (fT4) after radiotherapy. Logistic regression with leave-one-out cross-validation was performed to establish the NTCP model. Model performance was evaluated and compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in our NPC cohort. Results: With a median follow-up of 24months, 39 (22.4%) patients developed biochemical hypothyroidism. Gender, chemotherapy, the percentage thyroid volume receiving more than 50Gy (V50), and the maximum dose of the pituitary (Pmax) were identified as the most predictive factors for RHT. A NTCP model based on these four parameters were developed. The model comparison was made in our NPC cohort and our NTCP model performed better in RHT prediction than the other four models. Conclusions: This study developed a four-variable NTCP model for biochemical hypothyroidism in NPC patients post-radiotherapy. Our NTCP model for RHT presents a high prediction capability.
Original languageEnglish
Article number575
JournalBMC Cancer
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 18 May 2018


  • Late complication
  • Nasopharyngeal carcinoma
  • Normal tissue complication probability
  • Radiation-induced hypothyroidism
  • Radiotherapy

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Genetics
  • Cancer Research

Cite this