Convergence and spillover of house prices in Chinese cities

William W. Chow, King Fai Fung, Cheuk Sang Cheng

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

11 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The issue of house price convergence in 34 Chinese cities is investigated. We augmented the convergence model with contemporaneous spatial dependence in house prices and found that price convergence and positive spatial spillover are both present. We explicitly addressed the endogeneity problem by introducing a Bayesian instrumental variable setup, which was estimated with particle filtering techniques. From a growth poles perspective, the empirical evidence indicates that the spread effect in regional house prices outweighs the backwash effect. The identified positive spatial spillover has two effects on the growth of house prices in Chinese cities. First, the spillover elevates the trajectories of the steady-state growth paths of house prices. Second, the spillover narrows the gaps between the growth paths of house prices in neighbouring cities. Shocks to the socio-economic variables of a city generate their own effects on domestic house prices that dominate the effects arising from cross-city price feedbacks, thus mitigating the prospect of level convergence. Our findings also suggest a collaborating role between time and spatial dependence parameters. The identification of inter-city spillover, which is a conditioning factor for regional house price convergence, offers implications to policies that are most likely to be effective in reducing regional disparity.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)4922-4941
Number of pages20
JournalApplied Economics
Volume48
Issue number51
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2016

Keywords

  • China house prices
  • convergence
  • spatial dynamic panel model
  • spillover

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics

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