Abstract
Model predictive control (MPC) method shows superiority in enhancing system performance. But its actual performance in operation is hampered by forecast uncertainties. Different methods have been proposed to mitigate the impacts of these uncertainties, such as shrinking horizon MPC (SHMPC) and stochastic MPC (SMPC). However, the year-round performance of these methods has rarely been investigated, and little is known about their relative performance, particularly in utilization of building flexibility-resources. In this study, the year-round performance of conventional MPC (CMPC), SHMPC and SMPC strategies when used to optimize utilization of flexibility-resources in buildings with PV power generation and battery storage systems are compared using real-time optimal control (RTC) as the benchmark, and their enhancement is ultimately proposed. Forecast uncertainties are quantified based on real meteorological data. Different optimization horizon start times and shrinking intervals are tested. Results show that there is no one control strategy which is superior to the other strategies under all operating conditions. The SMPC strategy has a higher probability of achieving daily cost saving than CMPC and SHMPC strategies, but still has higher daily costs than the RTC strategy in the winter. Hybrid control strategies with proper control schemes implemented under different operating conditions are therefore recommended.
Original language | English |
---|---|
Article number | 122693 |
Journal | Energy |
Volume | 244 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2022 |
Keywords
- Building energy systems
- Flexibility-resources
- Forecast uncertainty
- Model predictive control
- Shrinking horizon model predictive control
- Stochastic model predictive control
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Building and Construction
- Modelling and Simulation
- Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
- Fuel Technology
- Energy Engineering and Power Technology
- Pollution
- General Energy
- Mechanical Engineering
- Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
- Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
- Electrical and Electronic Engineering