Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system

The TDFS process comprises three stages–preliminary data analysis, the generation of quantitative forecasts and judgmental adjustments–which correspond to the three key system components: the data module, the quantitative forecasting module and the judgmental forecasting module, respectively. These stages (modules) interact with one another. This paper focuses on a recent case study that illustrates the functional ability of the TDFS as a support system, providing accurate forecasts of the demand for Hong Kong tourism. Specifically, the quantitative forecasts are generated by the autoregressive distributed lag model, then adjusted by a panel of experts comprising postgraduate students and academic staff. The results show that this combination of quantitative and judgmental forecasts improves the overall forecasting accuracy.