Combining statistical and judgmental forecasts via a web-based tourism demand forecasting system

Haiyan Song, Bastian Z. Gao, Vera S. Lin

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The TDFS process comprises three stages–preliminary data analysis, the generation of quantitative forecasts and judgmental adjustments–which correspond to the three key system components: the data module, the quantitative forecasting module and the judgmental forecasting module, respectively. These stages (modules) interact with one another. This paper focuses on a recent case study that illustrates the functional ability of the TDFS as a support system, providing accurate forecasts of the demand for Hong Kong tourism. Specifically, the quantitative forecasts are generated by the autoregressive distributed lag model, then adjusted by a panel of experts comprising postgraduate students and academic staff. The results show that this combination of quantitative and judgmental forecasts improves the overall forecasting accuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)295-310
Number of pages16
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Volume29
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jun 2013

Keywords

  • Domain knowledge
  • Econometric model
  • Hong Kong
  • Judgmental adjustment
  • Tourism demand forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management

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