Combination forecasts of International tourism demand

Shujie Shen, Gang Li, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

64 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study investigates the performance of combination forecasts in the context of international tourism demand. Five econometric and two time-series models are employed to generate individual forecasts. Six combination methods are then employed, and their forecasting performance evaluated, using data on UK outbound tourism demand in seven destination countries. The results suggest that combination forecasts, in general, outperform the best individual forecasts. More sophisticated such combination methods, which take the historical performance of individual forecasts into account, perform better than the simple average technique. The performance of combination forecasts is associated with the performance consistency of the individual forecasts they include, and the inclusion of up to three individual forecasts is most likely to result in accurate combination forecasts.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)72-89
Number of pages18
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume38
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2011

Keywords

  • Demand forecasting
  • Encompassing tests
  • Forecast combination
  • Forecasting horizon

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

Cite this