Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

229 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Traditional tourism demand forecasting techniques concentrate predominantly on multivariate regression models and univariate time-series models. These single mathematical function-based forecasting techniques, although they have achieved a certain degree of success in tourism forecasting, are unable to represent the relationship of demand for tourism as accurate as a multiprocessing node-based feed-forward neural network. Previous research has demonstrated that using a feed-forward neural network can accomplish a higher forecasting accuracy than the regression and time-series techniques for a set of linearly separable tourism demand data. This research extends the applicability of neural networks in tourism demand forecasting by incorporating the back-propagation learning process into a non-linearly separable tourism demand data. Empirical results indicate that utilizing a back-propagation neural network outperforms regression models, time-series models, and feed-forward neural networks in terms of forecasting accuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)331-340
Number of pages10
JournalTourism Management
Volume21
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2000

Keywords

  • Back-propagation
  • Feed-forward
  • Neural networks
  • Tourism forecasting

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management
  • Strategy and Management

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