Assessment of the impact of changing activities start times on cash-flow parameters

Marwa Hussein Ahmed, Tarek Zayed, Ashraf Elazouni

Research output: Chapter in book / Conference proceedingConference article published in proceeding or bookAcademic researchpeer-review

Abstract

Cash flow modeling is crucial to contractors to sustain business. Contractors carry out multiple activities within a single project wherein the change of the start times of the activities have varying effect on the values of periodical negative cumulative balances and the other cash-flow parameters. Thus, changing the activities' start times leads consequently to changes in the value of the maximum negative cumulative balance and other cash-flow parameters as well. Schedule-driven cash flow models typically are generated to identify the effect of activities start times on projects' cash flow parameters. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation technique has been employed to generate schedules and their associated cash flow parameters. The activities' start times are assumed to follow uniform discrete probability distributions with the minimum and maximum values representing the early and late start times respectively. Further, the proposed simulation model considered the stochastic nature of cash-in and cash-out transactions by incorporating the effect of 43 qualitative factors. Three scenarios are defined; each scenario incorporates a different number of qualitative factors. Advanced sensitivity analysis is performed to measure the effect of changing the start times on cash flow using the correlation coefficients. Finally, the proposed simulation model help practitioners identify the activities that highly affect the cash flow and provides a metric to measure the strength of their impact.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationConstruction Research Congress 2014
Subtitle of host publicationConstruction in a Global Network - Proceedings of the 2014 Construction Research Congress
PublisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
Pages1498-1507
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9780784413517
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
Externally publishedYes
Event2014 Construction Research Congress: Construction in a Global Network, CRC 2014 - Atlanta, GA, United States
Duration: 19 May 201421 May 2014

Conference

Conference2014 Construction Research Congress: Construction in a Global Network, CRC 2014
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityAtlanta, GA
Period19/05/1421/05/14

Keywords

  • Cash flow forecasting model
  • CPM
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Building and Construction

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