Assessing the effects of stochastic perception error under travel time variability

Xiangdong Xu, Anthony Chen, Lin Cheng

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)


Perceived mean-excess travel time is a new risk-averse route choice criterion recently proposed to simultaneously consider both stochastic perception error and travel time variability when making route choice decisions under uncertainty. The stochastic perception error is conditionally dependent on the actual travel time distribution, which is different from the deterministic perception error used in the traditional logit model. In this paper, we investigate the effects of stochastic perception error at three levels: (1) individual perceived travel time distribution and its connection to the classification by types of travelers and trip purposes, (2) route choice decisions (in terms of equilibrium flows and perceived mean-excess travel times), and (3) network performance measure (in terms of the total travel time distribution and its statistics). In all three levels, a curve fitting method is adopted to estimate the whole distribution of interest. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate and visualize the above analyses. The graphical illustrations allow for intuitive interpretation of the effects of stochastic perception error at different levels. The analysis results could enhance the understanding of route choice behaviors under both (subjective) stochastic perception error and (objective) travel time uncertainty. Some suggestions are also provided for behavior data collection and behavioral modeling.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)525-548
Number of pages24
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2013
Externally publishedYes


  • Mean-excess travel time
  • Moment analysis
  • Stochastic perception error
  • Travel time variability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Development
  • Transportation

Cite this