An integrated approach for water resources decision making under interactive and compound uncertainties

Shuo Wang, G. H. Huang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

40 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In recent years, the issue of water allocation among competing users has been of great concern for many countries due to increasing water demand from population growth and economic development. In water management systems, the inherent uncertainties and their potential interactions pose a significant challenge for water managers to identify optimal water-allocation schemes in a complex and uncertain environment. This paper thus proposes a methodology that incorporates optimization techniques and statistical experimental designs within a general framework to address the issues of uncertainty and risk as well as their correlations in a systematic manner. A water resources management problem is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology. The results indicate that interval solutions can be generated for the objective function and decision variables, and a number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different policy scenarios. The solutions with different risk levels of constraint violation can help quantify the relationship between the economic objective and the system risk, which is meaningful for supporting risk management. The experimental data obtained from the Taguchi's orthogonal array design are useful for identifying the significant factors affecting the means of total net benefits. Then the findings from the mixed-level factorial experiment can help reveal the latent interactions between those significant factors at different levels and their effects on the modeling response.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)32-40
Number of pages9
JournalOmega (United Kingdom)
Volume44
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2014
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Interval
  • Mixed-level factorial design
  • Stochastic programming
  • Taguchi's orthogonal array
  • Uncertainty
  • Water resources management

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Strategy and Management
  • Management Science and Operations Research
  • Information Systems and Management

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