An Examination of Liner Companies’ Port Choices Under External Shocks Considering Firm Heterogeneity

In recent years, unexpected events ranging from natural disasters to pandemic outbreaks have produced increasing uncertainty in the maritime market, making it important to understand liner shipping companies’ port choice mechanisms under external shocks. This paper proposes an RDD-based model introducing firm-level characteristics to reveal heterogenous liners’ potential port choice mechanisms. The case study on liners’ port choices between major Chinese ports under external shocks, using COVID-19 as an example, reveals that domestic liners with a smaller average vessel size and broader network scope are more likely to maintain their port call levels under an external shock.