An ex-post analysis framework for assessing the effectiveness and driving factors of green building certification adoption: A case study of Singapore

Cities worldwide are adopting green building certification policies to meet sustainability and decarbonization targets in the building sector. However, the effectiveness of green certifications remains contested due to the difficulty of decomposing multiple influencing factors on building energy consumption. This study proposes an econometrics-based ex-post analysis framework to assess the effectiveness of green building certification policies in energy savings and identify driving factors by decomposing multiple influential factors. The proposed framework incorporates time-fixed effect models to examine factors driving the adoption of green building certifications, and causality analysis to quantify the effectiveness. Applying the framework to analyze a panel dataset of 1500 buildings in Singapore from 2006 to 2021, this study reveals counterintuitive findings that challenge conventional assumptions. First, while green certification reduced building electricity consumption by 12 % over 15 years, higher-tier certifications underperform their one-tier-lower counterparts by 17–64 %. Second, non-certified buildings have the potential to achieve substantial energy savings, revealing the importance of expanding certification coverage to currently non-certified buildings. Third, economic incentives and weather conditions strongly drive the adoption of green building certifications. On the other hand, despite the greater potential for cost savings, higher electricity tariffs may not lead to greater adoption of green building certification. Findings of this study challenge the presumption of a monotonic relationship between certification grade and building energy consumption, offering quantitative evidence to guide the optimization of incentive structures and certification strategies in green building policymaking.