An empirical study of forecast combination in tourism

Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt, Kevin F. Wong, Doris C. Wu

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

32 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The performance of forecast combination techniques is explored at different time horizons in the context of tourism demand forecasting. Statistical comparisons between the combination and single-model forecasts show that the combined forecasts are significantly more accurate than the average single-model forecasts across all forecasting horizons and for all combination methods. This provides a strong recommendation for forecast combination in tourism. In addition, the empirical results indicate that forecast accuracy does not improve as the number of models included in the combination forecasts increases. It also appears that combining forecasts may be more beneficial for longer-term forecasting.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3-29
Number of pages27
JournalJournal of Hospitality and Tourism Research
Volume33
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Feb 2009

Keywords

  • Forecast combination
  • Forecasting accuracy
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Education
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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