@article{2f5d2e66fd7a434bade3b9235577ce47,
title = "An analysis on the trend of AIDS/HIV incidence in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China from 2005–2015 based on Age-Period-Cohort model",
abstract = "This paper elucidates that the AIDS/HIV incidence rate differences exist among different population and regions, especially among the old and college students. Due to the effect of age, the AIDS incidence peak in males aged 20–35 years and 50 years old both in Chongqing and Shenzhen, and the incidence rate and increasing spread in males was higher than that of females under period effect. In the local population in Chongqing and Shenzhen, the incidence rate of males in over 40, below and in the whole age groups are predicted to increase sharply in the future six years, while in females, the incidence rates among over 40-year-old and the whole age groups were predicted to increase as well. The incidence rate among homosexually transmitted patients reaches the peak in the 20–35, the incidence rate of patients transmitted through heterosexual reaches the peak around 50-year-old. Under the effect of period, AIDS/HIV incidence rate of patients transmitted through sexual routes showed an upward trend both in Chongqing and Shenzhen. The incidence rate of patients aged between 41 and 70 years old presents with an upward trend in the future six years. The results show great differences exist in the AIDS/HIV incidence between males and females, therefore it is necessary to take specific measures respectively.",
keywords = "Age effect, AIDS/HIV, Cohort effect, Periodic effect, Prediction",
author = "Ying Liu and Weidong Ji and Yi Yin and Zhengrong Yang and Shu Yang and Chao Zhou and Yongli Cai and Kai Wang and Zhihang Peng and Daihai He and Weiming Wang",
note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their helpful comments. Y. Liu, Y. Cai and W. Wang were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant numbers 12071173, 61772017 and 1217011789), the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (20KJB110025) and the Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Dis- eases Control and Prevention (HAP201704). Z. Peng was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 82073673), the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China (2018ZX10715002) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). K. Wang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 11961071) and Program for Tianshan Innovative Research Team of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China (2020D14020). D. He was supported by Hong Kong GRF (Grant number 15205119). Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the editor and the referees for their helpful comments. Y. Liu, Y. Cai and W. Wang were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant numbers 12071173, 61772017 and 1217011789), the Natural Science Foundation of the Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions of China (20KJB110025) and the Huaian Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Control and Prevention (HAP201704). Z. Peng was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 82073673), the National S&T Major Project Foundation of China (2018ZX10715002) and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). K. Wang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant number 11961071) and Program for Tianshan Innovative Research Team of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China (2020D14020). D. He was supported by Hong Kong GRF (Grant number 15205119). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press.",
year = "2021",
month = aug,
day = "23",
doi = "10.3934/MBE.2021346",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "6961--6977",
journal = "Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering",
issn = "1547-1063",
publisher = "Arizona State University",
number = "5",
}
