TY - JOUR
T1 - Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2030
AU - Zhao, Yanji
AU - Zhuang, Zian
AU - Yang, Lin
AU - He, Daihai
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/10/11
Y1 - 2023/10/11
N2 - Objectives To explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. Design, setting, and participants Death registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants. Methods Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030. Results Short-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000). Conclusions Findings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
AB - Objectives To explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. Design, setting, and participants Death registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants. Methods Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030. Results Short-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000). Conclusions Findings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
KW - ONCOLOGY
KW - Risk Factors
KW - STATISTICS & RESEARCH METHODS
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85174640267&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072751
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072751
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 37821140
AN - SCOPUS:85174640267
SN - 2044-6055
VL - 13
JO - BMJ Open
JF - BMJ Open
IS - 10
M1 - e072751
ER -