Accuracy and bias of experts' adjusted forecasts

Vera Shanshan Lin, Paul Goodwin, Haiyan Song

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

14 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This study investigates whether experts' group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts' judgmental adjustments and a range of error measures and statistical tests were employed to evaluate forecast accuracy. Regression analysis was used to investigate whether the statistical and judgmentally-adjusted forecasts were unbiased. The hypothesis tests suggested that, on average, the adjustments of the Delphi panel improved forecast accuracy though the group-adjusted forecasts were found to be biased for some of the individual markets. In-depth interviews with the Delphi panellists provided further insights into the biases that were associated with the Delphi surveys.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)156-174
Number of pages19
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Volume48
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014

Keywords

  • Accuracy
  • Bias
  • Judgmental adjustment
  • Tourism forecasts

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

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