Abstract
Uncertainties are unavoidable in the travel demand model. The purpose is to provide a framework for analyzing and quantifying the uncertainty involved in travel demand forecasting models. Instead of using the traditional four-step approach to travel demand modelling that lacks behavioral interpretation and consistency, the combined travel demand model is adopted. A partial linearization algorithm is used for solving this multidimensional travel choice problem. A two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation technique is proposed to handle the uncertainties. It separately simulates the variability and uncertainty of the combined travel demand model so that individual and collective effects can be better assessed and quantified. Numerical experiment is also conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed framework.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | 4th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2003 |
Publisher | IEEE |
Pages | 367-372 |
Number of pages | 6 |
ISBN (Electronic) | 0769519970, 9780769519975 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 2003 |
Externally published | Yes |
Event | 4th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2003 - College Park, United States Duration: 21 Sept 2003 → 24 Sept 2003 |
Conference
Conference | 4th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2003 |
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Country/Territory | United States |
City | College Park |
Period | 21/09/03 → 24/09/03 |
Keywords
- Demand forecasting
- Employment
- Feedback
- Mathematical programming
- Microeconomics
- Multidimensional systems
- Predictive models
- Transportation
- Uncertainty
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
- Control and Optimization
- Modelling and Simulation