A study of the Hong Kong property market: Housing price expectations

Joe Tak Yun Wong, Chi Man Hui, William Seabrooke, John Raftery

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The size and direction of correlation between housing price movements and expectations differ between housing actors and change over time in Hong Kong. A cross-sectional market outlook survey was conducted in November 2000 to measure housing price expectations and their formation. The study challenges the traditional adaptive expectations theory and finds that the pessimistic mindset of market actors in a deflationary period was due to a lack of economic confidence - the root cause for weak expectations. It also suggests that there exist differential price expectations between different actors. Homebuyers and investors tend to be unrealistically overconfident in the long-term performance of the real estate market. Evidently, the determination of house sale prices is predominantly forward-looking, based more upon macroeconomic fundamentals than the past price trend.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)757-765
Number of pages9
JournalConstruction Management and Economics
Volume23
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sep 2005

Keywords

  • Expectation formation
  • Hong Kong
  • Housing price expectations

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management Information Systems
  • Building and Construction
  • Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering

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