A Simple Model to Estimate the Transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa

Yangyang Yu, Yuan Liu, Shi Zhao, Daihai He

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)10361-10373
Number of pages13
JournalMathematical Biosciences and Engineering
Volume19
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2022

Keywords

  • Beta variant
  • COVID-19
  • Delta variant
  • mathematical modelling
  • Omicron variant
  • SARS-COV-2
  • South Africa

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modelling and Simulation
  • General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
  • Computational Mathematics
  • Applied Mathematics

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A Simple Model to Estimate the Transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron Variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this