A review of research on tourism demand forecasting

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

332 Citations (Scopus)


This study reviews 211 key papers published between 1968 and 2018, for a better understanding of how the methods of tourism demand forecasting have evolved over time. The key findings, drawn from comparisons of method-performance profiles over time, are that forecasting models have grown more diversified, that these models have been combined, and that the accuracy of forecasting has been improved. Given the complexity of determining tourism demand, there is no single method that performs well for all situations, and the evolution of forecasting methods is still ongoing. This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on Tourism Demand Forecasting, a special selection of research in this field.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)338-362
Number of pages25
JournalAnnals of Tourism Research
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2019


  • Artificial intelligence model
  • Econometric model
  • Forecast combination
  • Judgment forecasts
  • Time series
  • Tourism demand

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management


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