A reliability-based traffic assignment model for multi-modal transport network under demand uncertainty

In densely populated and congested urban areas, the travel times in congested multi-modal transport networks are generally varied and stochastic in practice. These stochastic travel times may be raised from day-to-day demand fluctuations and would affect travelers' route and mode choice behaviors according to their different expectations of on-time arrival. In view of these, this paper presents a reliability-based user equilibrium traffic assignment model for congested multi-modal transport networks under demand uncertainty. The stochastic bus frequency due to the unstable travel time of bus route is explicitly considered. By the proposed model, travelers' route and mode choice behaviors are intensively explored. In addition, a stochastic state-augmented multi-modal transport network is adopted in this paper to effectively model probable transfers and non-linear fare structures. A numerical example is given to illustrate the merits of the proposed model.