TY - JOUR
T1 - A model for simulating schedule risks in prefabrication housing production
T2 - A case study of six-day cycle assembly activities in Hong Kong
AU - Li, Clyde Zhengdao
AU - Xu, Xiaoxiao
AU - Shen, Geoffrey Qiping
AU - Fan, Cheng
AU - Li, Xiao
AU - Hong, Jingke
N1 - Funding Information:
The Research Team (composed of the Department of Industrial and Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, and Department of Real Estate and Construction, the University of Hong Kong, and the Department of Building and Real Estate, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University) would like to thank the HKSAR ITC/LSCM R&D Centre for partially funding this research through the Innovation and Technology Support Programme (Project Reference: ITP/045/13LP ). The Research Team is also grateful to the Hong Kong Housing Authority and its contractors for supporting and participating in this research via real project applications.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2018/6/1
Y1 - 2018/6/1
N2 - The construction industry in Hong Kong has been exposed to serious housing production issues such as insufficient manpower, safety, environmental concerns and inefficient housing supply. Prefabrication housing production has shown as efficient construction model which enables to overcome these issues and it is applied in construction industry in Hong Kong. In this paper, hybrid modeling techniques that combine system dynamics and discrete event simulation are used to analyze the interrelationships of schedule risks within the six-day cycle assembly of prefabrication housing production. Moreover, a hybrid dynamic model is developed to simulate and evaluate the impact of schedule risks on the schedule performance of the six-day cycle assembly of PHP via the Anylogic software package. The resulting model is validated by data which is collected from a PHP project in Hong Kong. Based on the simulation results, the first most influential level contains five schedule risks, namely, inefficient verification of precast components because of ambiguous labels, misplacement on the storage site because of carelessness, owner crane breakdown and maintenance, slow quality inspection procedures, and inefficient design data transition that cause average schedule delays of more than 300 min. The second most influential level includes delay of the delivery of precast element to site, design information gap between designer and manufacturer, installation error of precast elements, and logistics information inconsistency because of human errors, with average schedule delays less than 300 min and greater than 200 min. Design change, low information interoperability between different enterprise resource planning systems, and inefficiency of design approval belong to the third level that imposes the least influence on the schedule delay of the assembly. This research contributes to the current knowledge of the management of prefabrication construction by developing an effective model that offers an in-depth understanding of how schedule performance of PHP is dynamically influenced by interrelationships of various risk variables. Also, it provides an experimental platform for simulating and analyzing schedule risks that significantly affect the schedule performance of the six-day cycle assembly of prefabrication housing production. Such critical schedule risks could be identified and managed prior to the implement of prefabrication housing production projects. Compared with traditional techniques, the hybrid dynamic model simultaneously considers macro and micro levels, thereby enabling project managers to gain a deeper insight into schedule management and acquire a multidimensional understanding of schedule delay.
AB - The construction industry in Hong Kong has been exposed to serious housing production issues such as insufficient manpower, safety, environmental concerns and inefficient housing supply. Prefabrication housing production has shown as efficient construction model which enables to overcome these issues and it is applied in construction industry in Hong Kong. In this paper, hybrid modeling techniques that combine system dynamics and discrete event simulation are used to analyze the interrelationships of schedule risks within the six-day cycle assembly of prefabrication housing production. Moreover, a hybrid dynamic model is developed to simulate and evaluate the impact of schedule risks on the schedule performance of the six-day cycle assembly of PHP via the Anylogic software package. The resulting model is validated by data which is collected from a PHP project in Hong Kong. Based on the simulation results, the first most influential level contains five schedule risks, namely, inefficient verification of precast components because of ambiguous labels, misplacement on the storage site because of carelessness, owner crane breakdown and maintenance, slow quality inspection procedures, and inefficient design data transition that cause average schedule delays of more than 300 min. The second most influential level includes delay of the delivery of precast element to site, design information gap between designer and manufacturer, installation error of precast elements, and logistics information inconsistency because of human errors, with average schedule delays less than 300 min and greater than 200 min. Design change, low information interoperability between different enterprise resource planning systems, and inefficiency of design approval belong to the third level that imposes the least influence on the schedule delay of the assembly. This research contributes to the current knowledge of the management of prefabrication construction by developing an effective model that offers an in-depth understanding of how schedule performance of PHP is dynamically influenced by interrelationships of various risk variables. Also, it provides an experimental platform for simulating and analyzing schedule risks that significantly affect the schedule performance of the six-day cycle assembly of prefabrication housing production. Such critical schedule risks could be identified and managed prior to the implement of prefabrication housing production projects. Compared with traditional techniques, the hybrid dynamic model simultaneously considers macro and micro levels, thereby enabling project managers to gain a deeper insight into schedule management and acquire a multidimensional understanding of schedule delay.
KW - Discrete event simulation
KW - Prefabrication housing production
KW - Schedule risks
KW - Six-day cycle assembly
KW - System dynamics
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85046041250&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.308
DO - 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.02.308
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:85046041250
SN - 0959-6526
VL - 185
SP - 366
EP - 381
JO - Journal of Cleaner Production
JF - Journal of Cleaner Production
ER -